We are happy to announce Professor Iain George Johnston as guest speaker on our statistics theme, at the upcoming Joint CEDAS – NORBIS Summer School 2023.
Iain is a Professor in the Department of Mathematics at UiB. His research group combines mathematical and statistical modelling with bioinformatics and lab work to address questions about evolutionary and cell biology. Current research topics include how cellular power plants in humans, crops, and other organisms evolve and evade damage, and how antimicrobial resistance evolves in dangerous bacteria. You can read more about their work here https://org.uib.no/stochasticbiology/ .
Title: How model selection can turn maths into science
Abstract: Researchers in the business of modelling biology (and more) often fall in love with a particular model of a system. The model is constructed, explored, often tested with unseen data, then published. But this is often misaligned with “science” as empirically understood — the testing of hypotheses with experiment. Any model will fit data to some extent, and admit some theoretical analysis. Why should I believe your model over mine?
On Tuesday and Wednesday, I will discuss the case for a more open relationship with our models. By constructing many different hypothetical descriptions and selecting between them given observations, we can indeed test hypotheses with (numerical) experiments, and engage more directly with open questions about mechanisms and predictions. I’ll discuss some examples of where Bayesian model selection has helped us make biological advances that would be challenging in the lab — including addressing questions about evolution, disease progression, and crop development.